The Price is Right for Natural Gas

Natural gas is becoming an increasingly important commodity in the energy markets here in the United States.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that natural gas will account for 35% of all domestic electricity production by the year 2040.

With geopolitical tensions mounting between the Ukraine and Russia, natural gas and the overall utilities sector have taken the spotlight since early 2014.

According to a referenced study by the Washington Post, "About 30 percent of Europe’s natural gas comes from Russia and that more than half this volume is transported through Ukraine."

Any disruption of the natural gas supply to Europe would likely have an immediate impact on energy markets worldwide. Interestingly, natural gas prices have actually been falling since the end of June,  despite the unsettled geopolitical situation overseas.

In this post, we are going to take a look at the chart for the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) to see why the recent bleed in natural gas prices may be coming to an end.

UNG: Will Bulls Make a Push Higher?

Per Google Finance, UNG is an investment vehicle that essentially tracks the changes in percentage terms of the spot price of natural gas as measured by changes in the Futures Contract on natural gas traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).

$UNG : United States Natural Gas Fund, LP

As can be seen from the daily chart above, UNG has fallen from just over $26 a share near the end of June to just under $22 a share at the close of trading on Friday. From the high point of this trending move lower, UNG has had a nearly 20% drop in price.

The downtrend evidently began to come to life around  the middle of June, when -DMI (orange line) charged above +DMI (blue line). This was a sign that the bears were awakening from their slumber and beginning to put on the pressure against the bulls. Coinciding with this spike in -DMI, the rising ADX line confirmed the trending move lower.

The ADX line has since topped out and is dropping on the daily time frame, indicating that the trending move lower may have abated for the time being. This is further confirmed by the recent spike of +DMI above -DMI, as the bulls begin to stand their ground.

Additionally, UNG has held above the support area around $20.50 on the chart, with buyers there and some price consolidation putting an end to the selling pressure for now. Bulls have also been able to reclaim the 20 day Moving Average, with UNG currently trading above it.

The MACD has also crossed above the signal line, which is another sign that a push higher in price by the bulls may be impending at this point.

On a push higher, the bulls may face resistance around the $22.50 region, followed by the 50 day Moving Average currently at around $23.50. Preferably, the bulls will maintain the 20 day Moving Average of $21.44 as a support area beneath them, followed by $20.50.

Underlying price action and technical analysis seem to show that the price is right for natural gas to move up from current levels. We'll see where the market goes from here.