No Rhyme or Reason: $SPY in Focus

On Tuesday, 9/29/15, the $SPY (NYSE ARCA: S&P 500 ETF Trust) traded as low as $186.93. By Friday, 10/9/15, $SPY traded as high as $201.90, equating to a nearly $15 markup in nine trading sessions.

Talk about a short squeeze. No rhyme or reason to it - plenty of underwhelming macro data releases over the past few weeks and the market still ran up. And it may not be over just yet. Let's take a look at the weekly and daily charts.

$SPY : S&P 500 ETF Trust

On the weekly chart, we can see that $SPY closed above $200 last week for the first time since the week of 8/10/15 - that was two months ago! However, the bulls still have a considerable overhead supply zone to overcome between the $202 and $204 levels. The daily chart shows this more clearly...

There is a markdown gap on the daily chart between $202 and $204 going back to last major pullback in the markets at the end of August. On 8/20/15, $SPY closed at $203.97 and opened the next day $201.73. Interestingly, $SPY found resistance during Friday's trading session at around the $202 level.

So where does this leave us? Well, on the daily chart the 5 DMA is currently at $199.65. The $SPY hasn't closed below its 5 DMA in the past eight trading sessions. If the bears manage a close below the 5 DMA in the short term, watch for support at the $197.50 level.

My gut feeling tells me that since the bulls managed to close $SPY above $200 on 10/8 and 10/9, they may have it in them yet to push through $202 and test the $204 level. In that case, watch for $204 to be a formidable resistance level.

For both traders and investors, keep in mind that the 8/24/15 low on the $SPY was $182.40. We've come a long way since then but it's important to be mindful of the fact that the markets can swing violently when we least expect it, so manage your positions and risk exposure accordingly.